If army fails, China will open new flanks: General Shankar Roychowdhury

THIS INTERVIEW APPEARED ON 5TH MAY, 2012 ON THE FRONT PAGE OF FREE PRESS JOURNAL.

ONLINE LINK: http://freepressjournal.in/if-army-fails-china-will-open-new-flanks-general/

After 21 days and 19 km of intrusion by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into Indian territory, New Delhi has failed both diplomatically and militarily to push the Chinese back on the other side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Gen. (Retd) Shankar Roychowdhury, Former Chief of Army Staff, in a candid interview with me, says the stand-off may lead to a 1962 war-like scenario.

Q. The third flag meeting between the two sides have failed to generate any result. Today is the 20th day of the stand-off. How do you see the situation developing?

ANS: The situation will not develop further. We have a very articulate Foreign Minister who has been making tremendously conciliatory statements. The major issue is that the Chinese have come across a line that India feels is the boundary. They have not just come across the Line of Actual Control (LAC), but have established them selves. This is a major variation. To move them back India will have to undertake a multi-pronged strategy. One arm of that will definitely be diplomacy. The second arm has to be an appropriate military build-up to contain and isolate whatever has come across otherwise New Delhi will not be able to get the right message across to the Chinese.

Nothing much will come out of this unless the government builds up its nerves and some kind of pressure is applied, otherwise we should reconcile that the Chinese will stay where they are and even militarily build-up further in the area.

Q. The government seems to have reduced the gravity of the situation by saying that it’s an ‘acne on the beautiful face’ and ‘a localised issue’. Do you agree with this?

ANS: I do not agree with the government on this at all, at all, at all, reason being: In 1996 India and China had a treaty and there were eight points of differences on the perception of border. Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) is just one of them. If India feels that it’s a localised issue and our response is ineffective the Chinese who are attempting to establish themselves under the new regime both on the ground and on the high sea may take a chance in other areas of dispute. Response in one area may further aggravate the situation in other areas as well.

Our Foreign Minister has time and again gone out of his way and has said that we do not want any trouble. If you do not want any trouble please keep quiet. Do not keep talking.

Since India is militarily weaker and unable to influence Chinese decision making from a position of strength, our esteemed and sometimes excessively civil foreign minister should not endlessly dwell on our supposedly common background as ‘two ancient civilisations’.

Q. This is not the first incident. There are reports of over 600 incursions in past few years. This time it is very serious as they have come in about 19 km inside Indian territory and this may give rise to Kargil-like situation?

ANS: What I am more worried about is not Kargil, but a 1962 like situation of Tawang and Thag La. Many seem to be not remembering their history and those who do remember says let us not do war mongering.

India, in 1962 went forward and claimed the Thag La ridge thinking that the Chinese will not react. But it was a complete failure of Indian intelligence. And this was the basic failure in Indian thinking that Chinese will not react regardless of what we do. India tried and establish its self beyond Thag La and the Chinese came rolling down on India.

So we should keep ourselves prepared and balanced. Keeping ourselves prepared to contesting and contending this creeping by the Chinese in the disputed areas should be our considered strategy.

 And this is something that is not being taken into account.

Q. India has started building military infrastructure in the disputed area. The are feeling a little provoked. Do you think New Delhi has taken a right step to develop military facilities at forward posts?

ANS: India should have started building military infrastructure decades back. What we are doing is too little, too late. And when we get some kind of pin prick from somewhere we scramble and try to contain it and then we get ourselves into all sorts of trouble. India must retain its balance, but very seriously develop border infrastructure which has not been adequately developed, specifically in the case of Daulat Beg Oldie.

Also, the Chinese should not feel provoked. We are within our side of the border. Chine has been developing military infrastructure on their side. India has taken a non-confrontational line and will continue to develop the required infrastructure. The Chinese do not hesitate in doing what they feel right.

Q. Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid will be visiting China on 9th May. Should he visit China at all?

ANS: In my personal opinion. NO. He has avoided saying that this issue of DBO will come up in his meeting with the Chinese counterpart. The emphasis is on cultivating good neighbourly relations between the two. Nothing wrong with that, but at the same time India must work on what is in the best interest of the country.

Modi wants world at Sardar Patel's feet

THIS STORY APPEARED IN FREE PRESS JOURNAL ON 3 MAY, 2013

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi wants the world to be at the feet of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel – the man who united India in its immediate years of post-independent years by annexing several princely states.

Addressing a business gathering organised by Indian Merchant Chambers in Mumbai, Modi said, Gujarat will soon be building a ‘Statue of Unity’ of Sardar Patel and I want the entire world to bow down to him.”

The statue will be 182 meters (597 feet) tall i.e. double the size of ‘Statue of Liberty’ (93 meters) in New York and statue of Shivaji (94.183 meters) to be built in Mumbai off the Arabian Sea.

On the current social and economic situation in the country, Modi said, “For the first time the Indian society is screaming in anger not only at Jantan Mantar, but wherever it can find a stage to voice its anger…The country is sinking…we need to change circumstances to bring change in the country.”

Taking a jibe at the Congress, Modi said, “For over 45 years you took the country in the wrong direction, then you correct your mistakes and call it reforms. The country needs policy-driven institutions and not Modi.”

Pakistan's tryst with democracy

THE ARTICLE BELOW APPEARED IN FREE PRESS JOURNAL ON 19 APRIL, 2013.

A complete fall from grace for Parvez Musharraf. The former military dictator and president of Pakistan is absconding from the judiciary and police authorities to avoid arrest for his crimes committed against the civil society and judiciary.

  Musharraf’s second coming to Pakistan to seek democratic legitimacy has proved to be fatal. He faces treason charges, court proceedings over the killing former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, killing of Baloch leader Akbar Bugti, imprisoning 62 judges including Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and now disqualification from contesting national elections.

While, from Musharraf’s arrest both Imran Khan of Tehrik-i-Insaf and Sharif brothers of PML (N) stand to gain the most as it will be termed as ‘justice delivered’, it will be the army who would have ditched its loyal soldier who served the force for over 40 years. But in recent times, the judicial populist – Iftikhar Chaudhry has put Pakistan’s politicians, civil bureaucracy and military on the back foot.

Pakistan’s military has preferred to remain within its barracks paving the way for stronger judiciary and longer lasting democracy. In the past, numerous attempts have been made to suffocate democracy in Pakistan, but it has refused to die.

For the first time in the country’s history, the democratically elected government is about to finish its full term and elections are about to be held on time.

With Musharraf’s elimination, the Pakistani society is left with three main options i.e. Imran Khan, Nawaz Sharif and Pakistan Peoples’ Party.

The young, the educated and anti-American-Pakistani nationals have sided with Imran Khan who has declared to sever ties with Washington and wage war against illiteracy.

 The country badly needs to educate the masses for the intellectual development of Pakistani society, while the former could have regional implication and India’s role in Afghanistan.

The country is surely missing its charismatic Pakistan People’s Party leader Benazir Bhutto.

Her husband and President Asif Ali Zardari has managed to hold on to his chair and run the government, but he has no hopes to offer any new politics from his politically fledgling son – Bilawal Bhutto.

Bilawal’s recent tiff with father Zardari, running away to Dubai and reluctant efforts lead PPP’s election campaign are surely hurting party and his political future.

He may speak and offer the blood shed by his ancestors, but he still is learning major languages spoken by his countrymen. He can’t even speak his mother tong – Sindhi – the language of PPP’s political base.

In 1999 Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan Muslim League (N) was the most hated man in the country and in 2000 stood behind bars – later to be sent in luxurious exile in Saudi Arabia.

 But after returning to Pakistan five years ago, Sharif is emerging to be the dark horse to lead the country once again.

As the Diplomat reports, the Sharif brothers will have to contain Imran Khan’s PTI. The latter has given the Sharif brothers run for their money in urban Punjab.

The silence of the Pakistan army raises many questions about its intentions and future course of action.

However, General Parvez Ashfaq Kiyani in post-Musharraf era and under Chaudhry’s judicial activism has appeared to have prefer to play the security guard. He has not shown any political designs and has not stopped Musharraf’s political fall.

 This can be interpreted in two ways. First, the military wants Musharraf to serve the jail term or die at the hands of Pakistan Taliban and second, quietly arrange for his safe exit from Pakistan to Dubai or London.

Fortunately, this time around, the Pakistan Army has stayed away from the political heat.

However, there is no gurantee of how and when the army will stage a coup and throw Pakistan into chaos. Anything more than a whisper and democracy evaporates in Pakistan.

Japan deploys defence shield as N-cloud gathers

THE ARTICLE BELOW APPEARED IN FREE PRESS JOURNAL ON 10 APRIL, 2013.

The nuclear taboo has been compromised. On Tuesday, North Korea issued warning saying the Korean peninsula was headed for ‘thermo-nuclear’ war and advised foreigners in South Korea to consider evacuation, in the latest in a series of apocalyptic threats.

Responding to the threat, Japan has deployed Patriot missiles in Tokyo as it readies to defend its people living in greater Tokyo from any North Korean attack. Tokyo also called for sanctions under the UN Security Council resolutions.

Japanese defence forces have been authorised to shoot down any plane or missile headed towards its territory.

Pyongyang has blamed the heightened war risk on the ‘warmongering US’ and its South Korean ‘puppets’ who were intent on invading the North.

Pyongyang has announced to conduct nuclear test on Tuesday amidst heightened tension with South Korea and the US. While the political and military analysts sound optimistic that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s threats are just bluster and suicidal for Pyongyang, one can not neglect the fact that the Korean peninsula is one of the most heavily militarised places on earth.

Pyongyang’s bellicose rhetoric has reached fever pitch in recent weeks, with near-daily threats of attacks on US military bases and South Korea.

The Korean peninsula has been locked in a cycle of escalating military tensions since the North’s third nuclear test in February, which drew toughened UN sanctions. If the unthinkable were to happen, there would be devastation on both the sides and the major loss would occur to North Korea.

But the unthinkable is not likely to happen. For Kim and his regime it would be suicidal.

There is significant doubt that North Korea’s long-range missiles that can reach the United States. However, there is no doubt at all that its short-range missiles can reach its neighbors, both of whom are very friendly with the United States.

But the age-old animosity with Washington may prompt  Pyongyang to attack Japan and South Korea to hurt the US. The US military has significant assets in both countries, and analysts predict that a nuclear strike against Hong Kong could cripple US international trade.

Either of the actions would prompt the US to launch large-scale military counter offensive and even launch the process for regime change in the leftist nation.

Though it is difficult to know Pyongyang’s intentions and aspiration with precision, it certainly is not in a mood to sit across the table and talk to Seoul, Beijing and Washington.

Pyongyang with over one million men has the fourth largest standing army in the world. But much of the North’s equipment is seriously outdated, going back to its alliance with the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. In contrast, South Korean army is only seven lakh strong, but as compared to Pyongyang, Seoul possesses much more modern and sophisticated equipment. Overall, Seoul’s armed forces present a formidable forward defence against any possible attack by North. With massive ground attack, Pyongyang could succeed invading South in the first phase, but will have to face 28,000 US troops stationed along the DMZ separating the two countries.

Moreover, Beijing has issued a veiled warning to Pyongyang to not to throw the region into chaos. Morover, Beijing doesn’t want a democratic Korea in the neighbourhood with American military presence. Interestingly, China ‘svarious anti-access-military-development to delay and/or deny any American intervention in the region has come to be challenged by the communist regime it has nurtured over the years.

However, this is the golden opportunity for China to assert its military hegemony in the region. In all probabilities, Beijing will be forced to act to stop Pyongyang from riding the nuclear missile.