Except turmoil
expect nothing

Except the second round of global economic gloom, 2011 gave America nothing but good news. It killed Osama bin Laden, dictators in the Arab World and North Korea fell automatically and American troops are out of Iraq. Unfortunately, Pakistan remains a problem in perpetuity. What remains to be seen is how America utilise these incidents of 2011 in the new year. And, how happy Osama bin Laden must be.

First, as the upheavals of 2011 in the Arab world look to stretch into 2012 we can expect a more chaotic democratic process, more Islamists and more volatile trouble. Things will never be the same. The 40 years of dictatorial decay is no more, but has left an unclear political future for the Muslims of the Arabia. Many Arab dictators are gone, few are fighting hard to keep their power; but who is coming at the central leadership is unclear.

Expect no or very little action from America. Remember no major oil exporting country has suffered regime change except Libya, and that required outside intervention, but not American. As long as America gets enough oil for its automobile industry and oil prices are high enough for the oil exporters, neither America will be bothered nor will oil regimes be worried. Both can work together to fend off legitimate demands of political liberalisation.

The year 2012 will test America’s democratic impulse. It failed miserably with its pre-emptive war in Iraq and elections afterwards. The demand for greater political voice is not going away. It is speaking even louder. What remains to be seen is how the West reads the Arab world in coming days and how the western media portrays it.

Second, Osama bin Laden must be the happiest man as all Muslim dictators are gone without having him fight and sacrifice Muslims. But unfortunately, the Arab world is listening only to the democratic voice and more importantly Islamist groups like Muslim Brotherhood and its variants al-Nahda in Tunisia and Justice and Development Party in Morocco are moving in the same direction.

However, al Qaeda, Iran and the official clergy of Saudi Arabia are the only voices who argue against democracy. This is a dangerous combination for the regional stability and in particular for winning hearts and minds of the masses that has been on the streets for over one year. Osama bin Laden idealised Muslim Brotherhood and made its philosophy a base for his personal jihad. So to say, how willing the Islamists will be to engage with America and American form of democratic politics and western style of economics. More importantly, America’s regional foreign policy goals than the autocrats they are replacing.

At the same time while the Arab world has opened its doors to democracy, American cultural influence can’t be ruled out. Islamists may provide better governance than their predecessor, but if the aim is to govern society with the help of Sharia, it might well instigate America to act leading to a second wave of religious and cultural confrontation between America and the Arab world.

Third, the herd mentality of the Arab revolutionaries has depicted the political character of the entire region. The sentiment and collective opinion of the revolutionary nations will impact the Israel-Palestine conflict creating regional and international problems and not just local.

If America involves itself in remaking the internal politics of the Arab world it will fail and if America plays on the Israeli side of the Arab politics it will fall on its face. The region’s political dynamics have changed. It is the mob and its sentiments that rule the revolutionary Arabs. It would be unfortunate if America has to use its military to force peace.

It is only the third option of allowing Arabs to decide their political fate i.e. politics in tandem with the book. In other words, an Islamic form of democracy allowing both religion and politics to take the centre-stage to govern societies. However, the fork in the road is the same factor i.e. how the Muslim Brotherhood and others steer the political process.

If the future political process is democratic without violence and much confusion, the Arab revolutionaries would win. But if the process turns violent and governed by the book it will be Osama bin Laden who would have the last laugh as the region would be thrown into chaos. The international community for sure does not want more trouble in the oil-rich region.

Democracy for the region is going to be a long road with many hurdles on the way.

Though much of American foreign policy in 2012 would be busy dealing with Middle East keeping in mind the upcoming presidential elections, both North Korea and Pakistan would require a much serious look.

The six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear ambitions would need to be brought back on track. America must not make this isolated country to talk democracy just to make its presidential elections campaign much more interesting.

The discovery of Osama bin Laden from Pakistan is a much serious concern demanding that Pakistani army’s nexus with terror groups be dismantled. Expect more drone strikes, but no real change.

It should be recognised that change is coming, but not stability. Both are mutually exclusive, but essential. Obama gave hope, but failed to bring change.

The "yes we can" speech has failed miserably and with American presidential elections next year expect some beautiful English and few surprises in US foreign policy as it seeks to reinstate its economic and military power.

China’s expanding naval footprint

China’s naval footprint is growing bigger in the Indian Ocean Region and South China Sea. This should come as no surprise to India, America or to the entire South East Asian region. After gaining ground on the international economic platform and showcasing it’s non-aggressive posture – China has finally started to show her willingness exercise military force and assert regional hegemony.

According to media reports, Chinese President Hu Jintao has given a call to country’s armed forces to prepare for a possible future war. The statement comes in wake of American President Obama’s diplomatic goal against China at recent Bali Summit in Indonesia where America pushed for discussion on disputed South China Sea Islands against latter’s will. Moreover, America has announced to station 2,500 troops in Australia. Beijing has reacted sharply saying that, “One should consider other countries interest in the region when developing its ties in the region.” While US Secretary Hillary Clinton’s visit to neighbouring Burma has sent strong message across the central leadership in Beijing that American re-engagement with the Burmese military junta could gravely endanger Chinese interest there.

Bejing’s concerns are natural, so as American re-engagement of the South East Asian region.

America, after engaging in two wars simultaneously created diplomatic, economic and military room for China. Her hegemonic ambitions that lay under the carpet gained momentum during the same period. The soft-power image that China created is slowly fading away. However, the only advantage Beijing has is her strong economic base making her a very credible military force unlike former Soviet Union of the Cold War era.

While the Chinese leadership has maintained that, China as a socialist state will never seek hegemony or sphere of influence. According to Pentagon Defence report 2008 much uncertainty surrounds China’s future course over latter’s expanding military power and that China’s leadership is yet to explain in detail the purpose of the modernisation of its military capabilities.

While it is hard to believe Beijing’s claim of it not harbouring any hegemonic ambitions –China’s military preparation is multipronged. With a very strong navy Beijing will be able to deny American forces any access in the South China Sea making former’s efforts of annexing Taiwan and disputed South China Sea Islands. Second, encircle India from Arabian Sea to Indian Ocean to the East Asia. And finally, the very encirclement would help secure sea lines on the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean Region.

As China’s economy grows it has become symbiotic with the global market. Currently, 80 per cent of China’s oil imports transit the Malacca Strait, close to 25 per cent of Chinese export to Gulf and Europe use the same route. Therefore, Beijing’s long term goals are possible only with increasing stable access to foreign trade, resources and energy. The latter has become a pressing issue for China as the country’s dependence is growing on international energy imports.

If China’s military preparation is from insecurity i.e. threat to her energy supplies point of view, which could hinder its economic progress Beijing is mistaken. However, her intensions are becoming clearer with the development of sea denial naval capabilities to regional and foreign navies. As Washington slowly comes out of Afghanistan and Iraq both China and South East Asia appear on its diplomatic and military radar. The question is how fast Washington will act.

American foreign policy is at the crossroads of containment and/or (further) engagement of China.

Two things need to happen. First, America will have to act responsibly, but without giving priority to its rights. And second, China cannot afford to read misread regional and Washington’s intensions. Beijing will have to keep its nationalistic agenda aside over Taiwan and disputed islands.

America is far more capable of manoeuvring regional geopolitics beyond Chinese imagination. China has risen economically, but new to power politics. Moreover, democracy could prove to be a very vital player in the region’s politics.

The democratic agenda of America could help India on several issues in the region. The question, how well and how fast Delhi exploits Washington. The recent development on Seychelles has raised eyebrows among Indian security analysts. But Indian government cannot afford to remain tight-lipped. However, India’s little or delayed response policy should not be misread.