Except turmoil
expect nothing

Except the second round of global economic gloom, 2011 gave America nothing but good news. It killed Osama bin Laden, dictators in the Arab World and North Korea fell automatically and American troops are out of Iraq. Unfortunately, Pakistan remains a problem in perpetuity. What remains to be seen is how America utilise these incidents of 2011 in the new year. And, how happy Osama bin Laden must be.

First, as the upheavals of 2011 in the Arab world look to stretch into 2012 we can expect a more chaotic democratic process, more Islamists and more volatile trouble. Things will never be the same. The 40 years of dictatorial decay is no more, but has left an unclear political future for the Muslims of the Arabia. Many Arab dictators are gone, few are fighting hard to keep their power; but who is coming at the central leadership is unclear.

Expect no or very little action from America. Remember no major oil exporting country has suffered regime change except Libya, and that required outside intervention, but not American. As long as America gets enough oil for its automobile industry and oil prices are high enough for the oil exporters, neither America will be bothered nor will oil regimes be worried. Both can work together to fend off legitimate demands of political liberalisation.

The year 2012 will test America’s democratic impulse. It failed miserably with its pre-emptive war in Iraq and elections afterwards. The demand for greater political voice is not going away. It is speaking even louder. What remains to be seen is how the West reads the Arab world in coming days and how the western media portrays it.

Second, Osama bin Laden must be the happiest man as all Muslim dictators are gone without having him fight and sacrifice Muslims. But unfortunately, the Arab world is listening only to the democratic voice and more importantly Islamist groups like Muslim Brotherhood and its variants al-Nahda in Tunisia and Justice and Development Party in Morocco are moving in the same direction.

However, al Qaeda, Iran and the official clergy of Saudi Arabia are the only voices who argue against democracy. This is a dangerous combination for the regional stability and in particular for winning hearts and minds of the masses that has been on the streets for over one year. Osama bin Laden idealised Muslim Brotherhood and made its philosophy a base for his personal jihad. So to say, how willing the Islamists will be to engage with America and American form of democratic politics and western style of economics. More importantly, America’s regional foreign policy goals than the autocrats they are replacing.

At the same time while the Arab world has opened its doors to democracy, American cultural influence can’t be ruled out. Islamists may provide better governance than their predecessor, but if the aim is to govern society with the help of Sharia, it might well instigate America to act leading to a second wave of religious and cultural confrontation between America and the Arab world.

Third, the herd mentality of the Arab revolutionaries has depicted the political character of the entire region. The sentiment and collective opinion of the revolutionary nations will impact the Israel-Palestine conflict creating regional and international problems and not just local.

If America involves itself in remaking the internal politics of the Arab world it will fail and if America plays on the Israeli side of the Arab politics it will fall on its face. The region’s political dynamics have changed. It is the mob and its sentiments that rule the revolutionary Arabs. It would be unfortunate if America has to use its military to force peace.

It is only the third option of allowing Arabs to decide their political fate i.e. politics in tandem with the book. In other words, an Islamic form of democracy allowing both religion and politics to take the centre-stage to govern societies. However, the fork in the road is the same factor i.e. how the Muslim Brotherhood and others steer the political process.

If the future political process is democratic without violence and much confusion, the Arab revolutionaries would win. But if the process turns violent and governed by the book it will be Osama bin Laden who would have the last laugh as the region would be thrown into chaos. The international community for sure does not want more trouble in the oil-rich region.

Democracy for the region is going to be a long road with many hurdles on the way.

Though much of American foreign policy in 2012 would be busy dealing with Middle East keeping in mind the upcoming presidential elections, both North Korea and Pakistan would require a much serious look.

The six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear ambitions would need to be brought back on track. America must not make this isolated country to talk democracy just to make its presidential elections campaign much more interesting.

The discovery of Osama bin Laden from Pakistan is a much serious concern demanding that Pakistani army’s nexus with terror groups be dismantled. Expect more drone strikes, but no real change.

It should be recognised that change is coming, but not stability. Both are mutually exclusive, but essential. Obama gave hope, but failed to bring change.

The "yes we can" speech has failed miserably and with American presidential elections next year expect some beautiful English and few surprises in US foreign policy as it seeks to reinstate its economic and military power.

China’s expanding naval footprint

China’s naval footprint is growing bigger in the Indian Ocean Region and South China Sea. This should come as no surprise to India, America or to the entire South East Asian region. After gaining ground on the international economic platform and showcasing it’s non-aggressive posture – China has finally started to show her willingness exercise military force and assert regional hegemony.

According to media reports, Chinese President Hu Jintao has given a call to country’s armed forces to prepare for a possible future war. The statement comes in wake of American President Obama’s diplomatic goal against China at recent Bali Summit in Indonesia where America pushed for discussion on disputed South China Sea Islands against latter’s will. Moreover, America has announced to station 2,500 troops in Australia. Beijing has reacted sharply saying that, “One should consider other countries interest in the region when developing its ties in the region.” While US Secretary Hillary Clinton’s visit to neighbouring Burma has sent strong message across the central leadership in Beijing that American re-engagement with the Burmese military junta could gravely endanger Chinese interest there.

Bejing’s concerns are natural, so as American re-engagement of the South East Asian region.

America, after engaging in two wars simultaneously created diplomatic, economic and military room for China. Her hegemonic ambitions that lay under the carpet gained momentum during the same period. The soft-power image that China created is slowly fading away. However, the only advantage Beijing has is her strong economic base making her a very credible military force unlike former Soviet Union of the Cold War era.

While the Chinese leadership has maintained that, China as a socialist state will never seek hegemony or sphere of influence. According to Pentagon Defence report 2008 much uncertainty surrounds China’s future course over latter’s expanding military power and that China’s leadership is yet to explain in detail the purpose of the modernisation of its military capabilities.

While it is hard to believe Beijing’s claim of it not harbouring any hegemonic ambitions –China’s military preparation is multipronged. With a very strong navy Beijing will be able to deny American forces any access in the South China Sea making former’s efforts of annexing Taiwan and disputed South China Sea Islands. Second, encircle India from Arabian Sea to Indian Ocean to the East Asia. And finally, the very encirclement would help secure sea lines on the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean Region.

As China’s economy grows it has become symbiotic with the global market. Currently, 80 per cent of China’s oil imports transit the Malacca Strait, close to 25 per cent of Chinese export to Gulf and Europe use the same route. Therefore, Beijing’s long term goals are possible only with increasing stable access to foreign trade, resources and energy. The latter has become a pressing issue for China as the country’s dependence is growing on international energy imports.

If China’s military preparation is from insecurity i.e. threat to her energy supplies point of view, which could hinder its economic progress Beijing is mistaken. However, her intensions are becoming clearer with the development of sea denial naval capabilities to regional and foreign navies. As Washington slowly comes out of Afghanistan and Iraq both China and South East Asia appear on its diplomatic and military radar. The question is how fast Washington will act.

American foreign policy is at the crossroads of containment and/or (further) engagement of China.

Two things need to happen. First, America will have to act responsibly, but without giving priority to its rights. And second, China cannot afford to read misread regional and Washington’s intensions. Beijing will have to keep its nationalistic agenda aside over Taiwan and disputed islands.

America is far more capable of manoeuvring regional geopolitics beyond Chinese imagination. China has risen economically, but new to power politics. Moreover, democracy could prove to be a very vital player in the region’s politics.

The democratic agenda of America could help India on several issues in the region. The question, how well and how fast Delhi exploits Washington. The recent development on Seychelles has raised eyebrows among Indian security analysts. But Indian government cannot afford to remain tight-lipped. However, India’s little or delayed response policy should not be misread.

Fall of Arab Dictators

Arab dictators are falling like house of cards. The task that Osama Bin Laden could only dream about is now being achieved. Do not thank Osama for it. The credit goes to Mohammad Bouazizi, the disgruntled Tunisian street vendor who set himself to fire last December.

Two contrasting figures. First, Osama who killed innocents for his own good. And second, Bouaziz who by killing himself ignited the fire of freedom across the Arab world. Three autocrats have fallen and the fate of many is in balance.

No there was no design or strategy to bring political change in the Arabia. May be the act of self-immolation was not targeted at the Tunisian dictatorship, but the ‘fiery protest’ is stone’s throw away from the bastion of Islamic politics i.e. Saudi Arabia.

Who is next in line is very difficult to predict. May be it is Shia` dominated Iran. Though Iran is a different political ball game, the democratic uprising would set a new trend for the entire Islamic world. But it would be interesting to see what happens next in Saudi Arabia. The socio-politico developments and American and European forces in these countries would decide the fate of Arab-Israel relations and of the entire Islamic world. The change is in the air for sure, but lot would depend on arrival of democracy or replacement of dictatorship with new generation of autocracy or interim military councils influenced by the West.

But the moot points are:

What took Arabs so long?

Are they tired of anti-west (American) politics and sentiments?

Do they really need democracy?

But is Islam ready for it?

And, what role America and Europe would play in the political transformation?

Cairo’s takeover was easy in contrast to what one would have imagined. So would Gaddafi fall and then Asad in Syria. But the real battle would start at the discussion table where different views would be discussed with western democratic model as an option.

Democracy is possibly the worst form of government, but the best available. Arabs would love tweeting their opinions and tag pictures on Facebook. After all, decades of monopoly in governance is coming to an end. However, the development and longevity of the freedom would always be under the shadow of different interest groups.

There is very little or nothing about democracy in the Arab political history. It would be a mammoth task to maintain basic tenets of democracy and incorporate religion that would choke any possibilities of re-emergence of dictators, Islamisation or Americanisation of democracy. However, some Muslim countries outside the Arab world have experimented democracy.

Pakistan, though ruled by military at regular intervals finds comfort with democracy. While, India and Indonesia with the world’s largest Muslim population are flourishing under democracy. Ethnic and religious diversity could be the spot spoiler, but democracy has made deep inroads in their social structure and mentality. May be something else is going on there.

Arab world has more or less remained united in the name of religion and anti-Americanism. But ethnic divisions ooze out regularly. Iraq has experienced some of the worst racial violence between Shia` and Sunni Muslims. But the country voted three times in 2005. Women in Kuwait have voting rights for the first time. The Kifaya movement openly challenged the legitimacy of the Mubarak regime and in 1980s the Tunisian regime abandoned its radical past and turned to economic reform.

But the startling fact is that in the Arab world non-of the mentioned initiatives have produced a structurally enhanced quality of governance. Forget about democracy.

So to say, the Arab regimes are ‘liberalised autocracies’ that have managed to survive for so long. But keeping recent political protests and political reforms exerted by external forces, democracy is not hard to imagine.

However, America would like to maintain its oil hegemony and influence Arab politics. And, doubts would remain whether the Islamist groups would go by the book or play by the rules of democratic political game. American and European forces will have to be faithful to the entire process. The naked interest over Iran and Israel could very well throw the entire region into panic.

So far, the demand emanating is for ‘freedom from dictators’. Democracy is yet to take birth. And, if genuine democracy is to spread in the region, for the first time the governments would be answerable to their people.

The political trajectories have suddenly changed. Hopefully for the better.

In contrast to 9/11, 2001, this 10^th anniversary is experiencing shockwaves across the Arab world. At least for now the Arab World has turned rubicon as against Osama’s green.

PHOTO CREDIT: GOOGLE IMAGES

India’s democratic edge over China

China and India – the two Asian giants are busy talking economy with the West. While the two economies have successfully accelerated the process of globalisation and diverted international economics to the region India continuous to suffer from corruption on the home turf and Chine faces international community over its human rights records. Despite this, what is it that keeps China ahead of India in the economic race? And, why would the latter will emerge as the better option?

To the envy of many developing countries, China has in last 25 years lifted millions out of poverty, engaged continents economically, built a credible military force with strong and stable economy and is home to technological and infrastructural development. And, with ‘Four NO’s’ i.e. no hegemony, no power politics, no military alliance and no arms race – China has spread its charm offensive and become popular. This soothing image of China has blurred the image of many across the world.

But the fact remains that China is an authoritarian state that oppresses its citizens, continuous to detain political prisoners from Tibet and arrest artists and journalists. While India is a born democracy with relatively better human rights record and freedom of press. And, above all India is home to the Tibet’s government in exile.

As China continuous to please the international community with its economy, the soothing scenario of Chinese economy offers hope to many in the West about opening of its political system for possible future transformation. It is fashionable to remind China about democracy and human rights in mainland while signing trade agreements with the latter or fighting elections. Last week in London the British PM David Cameron reminded his Chinese counterpart about human rights abuse, democracy and violation of intellectual property rights. Former British PM Tony Blair in 2005 said, “There is unstoppable momentum towards democracy in China.” While in 1999 President George Bush called for economic freedom to form habits for liberty.

There is optimism in these Western views that few years from now China with powerful and vibrant economy as today will succeed in becoming a democratic state with freedom for its press and respect for human rights. But China’s political system is still Leninist, run by communist party in hierarchical ascending circles with a central committee. As the country’s communist party is marking 90^th birthday poverty is rampant outside Shanghai and Beijing.

But behind the hope of China transforming politically, which is based on the soothing image rest its credible military might with strong economy unlike its communist predecessor Soviet Union who was a strong military power, but with weak economic base. Recent Chinese military advancement on sea, land and space has raised many eyebrows questioning Chinese intensions.

In a leaked cable from WikiLeaks recently revealed that China is hiding its military strength and intensions. The cable further stated that the trend of China's military modernisation is beyond the scope of what would be required for a conflict over Taiwan. Arguably China already poses a credible threat to modern militaries operating in the region and will present an even more formidable challenge as its modernisation continues.

But the bright side of Chinese modernisation is that the country’s leadership cannot afford to throw its millions of people back to poverty. And for further development of its economy China would require the West and the institutions that the latter built. In other words, China’s road to development runs through the West, which is democratic. However, no member of the international community would want to see China democratising only to descend into chaos. This could complicate the situation by China adopting stricter approach towards human rights and creating hindrances in the process of globalisation. It is clearly understandable that why the West would not want to risk the world order.

This offers China the strategic advantage over its Western countries, but India as the world's largest democracy has the inherent benefit over China. Indian democracy works because it welcomes everyone into its big tent - a habit that it developed during the years of its freedom struggle. The power and durability of the Indian ballot is significant. This has helped India survive its brief flirtation with authoritarian rule between 1975-77. While China's economy soars, in India growth may have been slow, but over a period of time it is certain and sustainable because of its democracy. Therefore, the political yoga by Baba Ramdev and fast unto death by Gandhian Anna Hazare - the Indian society is working to make Indian democracy function better for more progress.

The future is not just the growth rate, but human equality. India is neither East nor West, but a country that reflects universalism. It is the first modern nation of the emerging world where everything, but democracy rules.

Photo credit: Google Images.

A walk on the ‘Curry Mile’

This is Manchester’s ‘Curry Mile’.

You can eat around the world on Curry Mile, sampling everything from Indian to Pakistani to Lebanese to Turkish to Afghan cuisine. There are sights and smells of South-Asia and Middle-East and there is fun-fare like scene. Restaurants flashing bright neon lights, Indian and Pakistani women dressed in silk kurti and saree, Muslim men dressed in traditional Shrvani and Pathani outfits, British born Desis speaking broken Hindi and Punjabi, Chinese trying to learn English and selling pirated DVDs of Bollywood movies and amidst all these local British population trying to find their place in this mini-Asia in Manchester.

The ‘Curry Mile’ is a modern and dynamic place with traditional Asian values that celebrates its rich mixture of origins, cultures, religions, languages and customs. It is a place where most of South-Asia, Middle-East and now North Africa find comfort. This is Wilmslow Road in Manchester better known as the ‘Curry Mile’. Reports suggest that in the late 1950s and 60s, cafés on Wilmslow Road were the meeting place for huge number of men from the Asian subcontinent, who had been recruited to work in the textile mills and factories of Greater Manchester. But today, with the presence of huge number of students at the University of Manchester from across the world the face of the town has undergone a paradigm shift. BBC report suggests that it took only 15 years for Rusholme to become a non-Asian living area to Asian dominated locality.

Manchester’s journey from a textile trade centre to university hub has changed the demography of the town. The change resulted in not only mass exodus of local British families to other parts of the town, but lucrative business opportunities attracted Asian men to work at the textile mills in 1950s and 1960s and now international students flocking into the town. But many of the Indians and Pakistanis are from Uganda who were expelled from the country by Idi Amin and from Kenya now, holding British passport. Few Kashmiri Muslims who hesitate in spelling the word Azadi, but at the same time look at the brighter side of freedom enjoyed in UK and Gujarati Muslims from Bharuch and Surat in India. Gujarati Muslim females dressed in beautiful white, pink and sky blue burqas and men wearing white kurta and traditional Bohri-Islamic cap decorated in gold and silver thread.

From traditional shopping town offering English goods and textile products to Business owned by Asians to the recent inroads by supermarkets the Curry Miles appears to be undergoing another round of change. But with disappointed youth from various parts of Asia coming into Manchester, but Bollywood music and the food business keeps the spirit at Curry Mile alive. Bilal from Spice Kitchen a take-away owned by a Pakistani says, “At Curry Mile you feel at home. We have students from India and Pakistan coming to us as customer and they never give us a feeling that we are in the UK.” Whereas on the other hand Salman a student from Pakistan says, “UK is better from employment point of view as Pakistan is in turmoil and as the ‘Curry Mile’ gives you a feeling of a home away from home will stay here till situation gets better back home.” Salman is working part-time in a convenience store owned by Patel family from Gujarat in India.

Some knowledge of history of Britain’s international relations and little knowledge of South Asian and Middle Eastern language revels the issues discussed on the ‘Curry Mile’. From Bush to Obama to Osama to Kashmir to brilliant goal scored by Roony – everything is discussed over a cup of ‘chai’ – Indian tea and shisha with Bollywood music being played in the background.

But mouth watering smell of ‘chicken tikka’ and ‘chaat’ is tempting enough to take you away from some of the serious issues. David from Wembly says, “I have grown up eating Gujarati food and Indian ‘chaat’. I am visiting my friend here in Manchester and when I learnt that there is an Indian ‘chaat’ house I just popped in to taste some and now I have got used to with the spicy food from India.”

Giles Burnett in his report suggests that until 1960s, Rusholme was an ordinary suburban shopping district occupying an obscure niche in the lower rungs of Greater Manchester’s retail hierarchy. Most shops occupied the ground floor of the late nineteenth-century building linings, but through an evolutionary process most shops have been converted into famous restaurants majority of them owned by Indians and Pakistanis.

A wander down Wilmslow Road reveals a bustling area filled with take-aways, grocers, boutiques and various other shops catering to Asian, Arabic and white clientele amongst others. But this patch of Manchester is different from rest of ‘White’ Manchester. A whole range of newly quarters have being promoted: Chia Town, the Gay Village, Salford Quays, Sport City etc. The Curry Mile though a stone’s throw away, has escaped the influence of British culture and has made space for Asian culture. Even the bus drivers running along the ‘Curry Mile’ are from different parts of Asia who speaks Punjabi, Hindi and Urdu with fluent English to deal with local British population and greets in Arabic with passengers from Middle East.

A second wave of change has come to ‘Curry Mile’ with supermarkets and influx of Arabs from North Iraq better known as Kurdishtan running call-on-taxi services. But the ‘Curry Mile’ is in no mood to lose its South Asian charm as this patch is overwhelmed by indian and Pakistani community and their vibrant cultural colour that comes with a tint of Britishness.

The long haul begins

Osma Bin Laden – the world’s most dreaded terrorist is dead, but leaves behind a legacy of violence, mass murder and ideology of hatred. An ideology of bloodshed and cruelty – only to be furthered by various Al Qaeda splinter groups and his second and third line of leadership.

While his elimination brings jubilation to 9/11 victim families and many other across America, however is a grim reminder of his fundamentalist and radical ideology that has worked to pose Islam against other cultures. The roots of the hate ideology are not only to be traced the fundamentalist way, but the so called Americanisation of cultures, oil politics that White House has played over the years and the sheer neglect of Afghanistan in post Cold War years.

Some might see this as the ‘beginning of the end game in Afghanistan’ and “justice delivered”. But the flip side of the coin according to Bin Laden and his followers has been withdrawal of American forces from the Arabian Peninsula, Arab land free from Jews and Christians and full stop to the invasion of American culture onto the Muslim lands. This is the ideological lineage that terror groups from Arabia have been following in order to further their agenda of hate and violence.

Many scholars in post 9/11 world acknowledged Sayyid Qutb the Egyptian radical ideologist to be the intellectual godfather of Islamic movements like Al Qaeda and its activities like the WTC attacks. Now, that Osama is claimed to be dead and buried in the sea some of the major terror outfits from Pakistan have started giving fresh calls to the vulnerable sections of the Islamic society not by actions yet, but by gestures of leading the mass prayers dedicated to Osama Bin Laden. The presence of Hafeez Mohammad Saeed the leader of Jama’at-Ud-Dawa in Quetta, Pakistan is one such reminder of the strong presence of Osama’s ideology in his absence. His open support to Osama and Pakistan’s inaction is a clear indication of coming diplomatic conflicts between India-Pakistan, shifting war on terror from Afghanistan to Pakistan and latter’s tryst with ideological bomb that might implode any time.

While the ground battle continuous boosting America’s military hegemony to new heights it continuous to face questions over the battle against its own ideology of violence. Remember, while Osama was a terrorist that killed thousands – America does not personify peace to many. Osama’s death has come to pose many questions to America. What kind of economy is America? Coke for Oil? What kind of nation is it? Diplomacy of peace through barrel of the gun? And, what kind of nation you would want to become? A nation that seeks peace in SUVs? These are the answers with question marks and are equally applicable to rest of the international community.

The countries in the Middle East and North Africa have just revolted against their dictators that were once supported by America and other Western countries. This could well be the new breeding ground for extremist forces. The Christian Science Monitorreports Libya possibly be the new heaven for Al Qaeda forces with Tunisia, Algeria and Egypt not far away. The political and security equations have become even more complicated with Osama’s absence as revenge seekers are expected to strike. It is hard to think that extremist forces will miss the pleasure in revenge.

The world was never safe with Osama, but in his absence has become even more uncomfortable with countries raising the security levels and making precautionary arrests. The mascot of international terrorism has been eliminated, but the war on terror continuous with his ideology that is deep rooted.

It took almost 10 years to find and kill Osama, but will require more than 100 years to erase his ideology. He lives in hearts and minds of many, but not all. His words have spoken louder than his actions forcing many to join his Jihad. And, he will continue to survive on YouTube and Face Book.

Former American President George Bush in his address to the Congress shortly after 9/11 said, “Americans should not expect one battle, but a lengthy campaign, unlike any other we have ever seen.” The long haul seems to have begun. Perhaps the most difficult part of the war will be breaking the hypnotic effects of Osama.

Picture credit: Google Images.

The Tri-Colour sweeps India

Past few months have been extremely eventful for India. The mass and the media have been busy with the filth of corruption. Team Dhoni brought some cheer for the country with their cricket world cup victory, Anna Hazare revolted against the dishonesty of the Indian polity with his Gandhigiri reminding Indians the real issues and now the death of Sathya Sai Baba is sweeping Indian society.

The common factor? The tri-colour that soared high at Wankhede, at Jantar Mantar and now to be used for the state honours of Sathya Sai. While every Indian is still busy with cricket and watching Sachin Tendulkar both at the IPL and in Puttaparthi we missed him at Jantar Mantar with Anna. This is true not only for him, but for the entire Indian cricket team that made the country proud. An opportunity lost by the team India that could have heat a master stroke with Anna’s delivery with Indian Political League is in a week position.

If joining Anna was tiring after a month long cricket campaign Twitter and blogging is not. If it was, why the men in blue pounced upon to their IPL campaign? And while Sachin can visit Sathya Sai in Puttaparthi for his last images then why not Jantar Mantar where the new revolution against the cancer of corruption took place? How could the entire Indian cricket team miss the episode?

Indian cricketers are known for their corporate alliance and have stayed away from politics. But in 2009 they showed their protest against the terrorist attack on the Sri Lankan players in Pakistan and in 2008 expressed support to their coach Gerry Kirsten on the sad demise of his mother by wearing black arm bands. Why not the same at IPL? Why not for India? While Anna’s fast jolted the government at centre things could possibly be political for team India as their road to ICC runs through BCCI.

While India is basking in the glory of cricket victory it should be born in mind that large parts of the country is facing the heat of political dishonesty and the pocket of the common Indian is being used to shower money onto wealthy cricketers. A one line statement by the Indian cricket team in support of Anna’s movement would have done more for their billion followers. This could have possibly set the stage for their post-cricket career, but Bollywood and corporate sector has better and lucrative offers. The players have not denied their iconic status and from being called the ‘god of cricket’ and will not deny national awards like Bharat Ratna.

But the players are not to be blamed completely as one of the biggest jokes about democracy comes from senior political leaders of the present government. According to Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar the recent movement at Jantar Mantar could undermine the process of democracy. How could a peaceful (Gandhian) movement harm the democracy? May be the Lok Pal bill has many more hurdles to go through.

Democracy is the game of your followers and you following them. The Indian mass is followed everywhere for the votes and to sell products. Now, as India is busy with Anna Hazare and Sathya Sai, and Sachin with IPL and his Guru it is time for Sachin and his team mates to reciprocate to their followers with some social work. This should help the government to make changes and award our cricketers with Barat Ratna. May Sathya Sai help Anna Hazare, team India and Indian politicians.

Picture credit: Google Images.

Democracy Version 2.0

Democracy Version 2.0

Hosni Mubarak, a figure larger than the Egyptian ‘Pharaoh’ has been brought down. The change has come to Egypt and now spreading across the Arab world.

But what next is the big question. The people of Egypt face an uncertain future. Can Egyptians work together or decent into anarchy or civil war? Will the Islamists take control and rework alliance with the West and Israel? Or will it be the military council continuing its present role?

While democracy promotion is not new to Egypt, but Tahrir Square has put the entire Arab world on the path of democratisation that has been suppressed by country dictators. The process of democratisation started in the year 2005, but for the very first time in decades social unrest in Egypt has shifted to decidedly anti-regime political unrest as opposed to riots.

Fortunately the revolution has remained more or less calm. But amidst the uprising euphoria concerns remain over the transit period. Former ministers are being put on judicial trial, old Prime Ministers being replaced with the new one, dissolution of Mubarak’s National Democratic party remains and the political detainees are still behind the bars.

Two things are unclear from this. First, the change is far from complete. And second, what are the long term prospects for Egypt? The people of Tahrir are not guaranteed a democratic and stable future unless free and fair elections are not conducted and much depends upon the authorities and they deal with the uprising democratic euphoria.

As Egypt has won Cairo more challenges await. The change is incomplete and likely to leave its hangover. India’s 60 years of experience with democracy tells the true story of freedom and discontent. The feeling of discontent among Indians is probably at its peak. While freedom flourishes in every possible form.

The Tahrir protestors complained about Mubarak regime’s iron fist rule, economic corruption and social suppression of the society. All in all hatred for Mubarak’s monopoly of power of over 30 years. Most Indians would list the same grievance about the independent democratic India. With several scams emerging with government’s involvement everything is up for grabs. The news media is blamed for political lobbying; judges are being arrested and jailed for bribery, government ministers jailed for political and business favouring. The three main pillars of democracy are deeply involved in corruption as a result of which the forth pillar i.e. the society i.e. the mass is feeling cheated. This could jeopardise the very social fabric of the society.

Democracy even if achieved will not solve Egypt’s problems overnight or even in next few decades. Democracy is an evolving process. Egypt invites expectations from the West as it enjoys economic, political and military strategic importance. At the same time it would have expectation from the Arab world, the international Islamic society over the issue of Israel-Palestine. With Mubarak gone, Egypt is busy removing his impression from every government institution, but before the regional expectations are met and ‘demubarakasition’ carried it is important for Cairo to fix rising food prices and youth unemployment.

There is long road to stable democracy, but in the Middle East – Egypt is best suited for democracy with its intellectual class, enterprising middle class, unique culture, five Noble prize awardees and most importantly the growing demand for democracy. Both American and Indian democracies are gifts of the colonial rule of centuries. They are peaceful but not perfect, there is progress and not chaos, there is corruption not destruction and there is rule of law and not governed by the book, military or a dictator. Mosques and Churches function together so does Burqua and bikini.

These elements are simple, but the implementation is difficult. The testing times have started for the people of Tahrir Square. In the lengthy procedure of ‘bringing’, developing, maintaining and protecting democracy Egypt’s liberal society, economic prospects and its seat in the Arab world, the West and conflicts in the neighbourhood offers the best opportunity to Cairo to leapfrog American and Indian version of democracy with its democracy version 2.0. The best tool at Egypt’s disposal is internet providing it the gateway to the world.

Tahrir has not only dethroned a dictator, but has set a trend for the Arab world and a chance to dismiss the ridicule of the Islamic society that has come to be associated with religious extremism in the post 9/11 world.